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Showers later Tuesday is far from the kind of rain we badly need

Posted at 4:54 PM, Oct 31, 2022
and last updated 2022-10-31 22:09:25-04

Update 7:06pm from KSBY Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde: Our 3km model update showed a few changes. Faster arrival, early afternoon along the north coast in SLO County with much of the area getting rain during the PM commute. Also this run showed a range of light to .50", the prior runs showed light to .20". Not a huge change but worth updating. We will see if this holds for later runs. I'll update again if necessary.

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We are definitely in the midst of fall-like weather. We've seen the twists and turns of clear and warm forecasts turn to cloudy and cool ones, but thus far we haven't seen much rain. Our 2022-2023 rain season began at the beginning of this month, and only a few places actually have measurable rainfall. There is a showery system on the way later Tuesday that likely changes that, but to call it a "significant" event locally is likely overstating the impact (regionally it may be another story).

Let's get to the short-term "Halloween" forecast.

Being that there are a lot of clouds in the area, temps will not drop very rapidly this evening. For many kids and parents at an event or in the neighborhoods trick or treating temps will drop thru the 60s by 8pm. Might be a light jacket for some but not that bad for the evening, and not raining (yet).

Tuesday gets off to a cloudy start at the beaches, coastal valleys, and interior valleys. Onshore winds in advance of the cold front will keep most places partly to mostly cloudy. The actual front doesn't arrive until early evening and slides thru the entire region before midnight.

Along the front, the most showery activity will take place. Rain rates look like and total rainfall also looks light. I think most folks will stay inside of .20" of rain, in fact I think most reports are likely to be shy of .10".

We are behind the front on Wednesday but the atmosphere will be "conditionally unstable" meaning a few stray showers are possible when daytime heating takes place. I think this will be isolated if it happens at all. Daytime highs Wednesday will only be in the 60s in the warmest spots and upper 50s for many. It'll also be getting windy in the afternoon. NW winds 10-20 with gusts to 25mph. Thursday will also be cool and breezy with partly cloudy skies with afternoon winds NW 10-20 with some occasional higher gusts.

The system is more interesting outside of our area. In the higher elevations in CA snow is likely. This is also a high wind event for areas to our east and south, anyone traveling should get a destination-specific forecast from or app or the search box here at KSBY.com