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Showers on Sunday with more significant storm potential Tuesday and Wednesday

Santa Margarita Lake
Posted at 4:44 PM, Mar 17, 2023

We are currently in a brief break in the weather and it will not last that much longer.

I think Saturday is a pretty mild day with much of the area reaching mid to upper 60s with a few scattered low 70s possible for high temperatures. This is the last slam dunk dry day Thursday next week.

The Sunday rainfall will arrive overnight into the early morning but a few showers can’t be ruled out in the afternoon. In total this rain event looks to produce light amounts up to .60”. I think that most of the area will see light to .25” with the higher amount limited to the SLO County north coast and higher elevations in the hills and the hills of Santa Barbara county.

We should see a break after this rain from later Sunday into Monday, but later Monday thru Wednesday there is a high probability event on the way. Models have liked a larger system in this timeframe. 1-2.5” is possible with higher winds and waves also likely.

This is not as strong as the system we experienced Tuesday but considering some of the infrastructure issues the tipping point for some potential issues is lower. Stay tuned for more about this storm as we draw closer.

After this event computer models still like something late next week and another relatively significant system near Central California somewhere near the end of the month. You don’t want to make too much about the end of model runs, but suffice to say that more active weather is likely.