Since I talked a good bit yesterday about tropical storm Frank, I think I'll lead with the fact that Frank no longer satisfies the criteria of a tropical cyclone. This doesn't mean what is left of Frank won't continue to shoot some high clouds into the area but it is not a major factor in the forecast. Models still suggest there is one more surge of clouds and perhaps a minor shower chance from the west relating to Frank-leftovers but at that, it only qualifies as a non-zero chance by a smidge.
By later Wednesday the upper-level flow returns to a more easterly direction and again the situation to watch will be the edge of the summer monsoon from the 4-Corners Region. There is an easterly surge of moisture and energy early Thursday that again introduces a non-zero chance of a shower in the eastern hills or the northern interior of SLO county and perhaps the higher elevations of Santa Barbara county but it also looks just to edge our area, more likely in Ventura or Kern Counties. The higher likelihood is that most, if not all, folks in our area don't see any activity at all from all this muggy unstable air surrounding us.
The larger impact will continue to be the warmer overnight lows from the high clouds trapping in the daily heat and the higher than average dew points. Again, I'll note that it qualifies as somewhat noticeable mugginess but in the larger scheme of what most of the country would label truly muggy this is on the lower end of the scale.
A record high minimum temp was set last night in Paso Robles at 69 degrees (the lower 50s is average for a low), and mid to upper 60s are possible again the next few nights in the interior valleys. Coastal lows will be closer to the lower 60s.
Paso Robles will be very hot Wednesday at 104, but ease significantly Thursday thru the weekend as high pressure eases. Friday thru the weekend temps will be in the 90s but overnight lows drop back into the upper 50s.
Coastal conditions are a mix of night and morning low clouds with occasional variable high cloud cover with temps in the coastal valleys running near average, perhaps slightly over. Beaches look to cool late this week into the weekend with stubborn marine clouds possible (some Fogust). Steady temps near (or slightly above) average are likely next week with garden variety weather conditions. In other words, a much less complicated weather pattern.
