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Storm system still developing and will linger into Thursday

Monday at Morro Rock
Posted at 3:48 PM, May 01, 2023

I’ve been saying for a while the weather pattern this week will be easy to notice. I’d argue that is already true with Monday already featuring more clouds and dramatically cooler weather than the area got over the weekend.

 A trough of low pressure is dropping into California. Inside this upper-level feature, a surface low will start to deepen (spin up). So, with time, this pattern will become more capable of producing some rain.

We’ve actually already seen a few widely scattered light showers, but more significant activity will start to move in Tuesday but it is really Wednesday when this system will have its greatest capacity to produce meaningful rainfall.

 

It isn’t just rain but the potential for thunderstorms that people need to be aware of. The thunderstorm risk is on Wednesday. This brings the potential for lightning, brief heavy downpours, hail, and isolated small tornadoes or waterspouts are also possible. This is not a high-risk scenario. The risk is “marginal” according to the Storm Prediction Center and there are no active watches or warnings.

 

This is also not a particularly wet storm. “Up to 1 inch” has been our forecast. Today, most models have backed off the higher end of that range but I still think it is a good broad brush to use at the moment. Most folks will likely see .10-.50” of rain but the upper end can’t be discounted just yet.

 

Again, Tuesday we ease into the system. Wednesday we will see the most activity into early Thursday morning and by late Thursday the system is departing. You’ll know the system is getting closer when the winds switch from the current NW direction to SW later Tuesday thru Wednesday. When winds shift back to the NW you’ll know we are on the back side of this storm.

 

Notable as well are the much cooler highs.

This will be true until the system departs with highs in the 50s and lower 60s. Mid-60s and low 70s return for the weekend.