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Storm system will continue to produce some rain activity into late Monday night

North County rain skies
Posted at 4:18 PM, Mar 28, 2022
and last updated 2022-03-28 20:52:21-04

A strong storm system did pretty much what forecasts expected: deliver rain, some scattered thunderstorms (with waterspouts) and wind.

The storm isn't quite done producing rain yet, the trough and surface low are still moving over the area.

Combined with surface heating the cold unstable air aloft did produce some convective activity. The most interesting element being numerous waterspouts spotted on radar off the coast. A number of marine warnings were produced, mostly off Morro Bay early and later the Lompoc/Vandenberg coastline area. No land contact was reported.

When daytime heating dissipates the activity will wane but linger into the late hours Monday.

After that, the issue appears to be low clouds. This is frequent after rain events when low-level moisture is trapped after rain systems. This could be a visibility issue late overnight into Tuesday morning. In fact, over the next several mornings low clouds/fog will be a potential issue near the coast and in wind-sheltered valley locations.

Temperatures only slowly warm. Even though the sharp trough and surface low kick out, a broad trough remains over California with a ridge to the west only moving east late in the workweek. This will boost temps Friday thru the weekend, especially away from the beaches and coastal valleys.

This storm system was important because it could be the last big system in the rain season, it is too early to say that with high confidence but statistically speaking April rainfall on average is only about 1" for the Central Coast and rain expectations go down after that. This is not to say there have not been systems providing rainfall in that window, it is that it is considered rare.

Generally, this forecast did very well. Our .5-2" rain forecast fit most areas nicely and the timing and conditions played out nicely. This will not fix drought conditions but it certainly didn't hurt them. We'll run more season-to-date numbers once this system is finished dropping rain.