The upper-level low spinning to the south of us is something we've kept our eyes on for more than a week. These features with very little steering from the upper atmosphere can be tricky to nail down however I'd say models have been pretty good this week on temps and cloud cover so their guidance in the short term does look reasonable.
What those models are telling us is that the low wobbles up north a bit Saturday and delivers some showers from south to north thru the area. Rain would start in northern SLO county last which could be as late as late morning or early afternoon.
The showers are mostly done in the afternoon or early evening but some isolated showers are possible into early Sunday. Monday another push from this low could deliver some showers, but likely less coverage. I'm less convinced of the late shower push so for now I think just mostly cloudy.
Prior to that we have a wind event in SLO county Friday night into early Saturday for NE winds of 15-25 with gusts of 35-50 mph into Saturday morning at 9. What is interesting about this feature is that it'll essentially fight the shower system which is more of a mid-level system. The NE flow could dry the low a little making projections a challenge.
After that, outside of the Monday final push from the SoCal low.. the extended forecast looks quiet til near the end of the month when some models suggest a more significant system could arrive. Models have been trying to spin up something off the SoCal coast, but struggling with specifics which is not uncommon at the tail end of a run. Suffice to say that we'll be watching for this over the next week or so.
