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Temperatures stay up thru the weekend

A view from Edna Valley in California
Posted at 5:32 PM, Feb 10, 2022

The huge ridge over The West continues to keep skies clear and daytime highs warm. The other key factor is offshore surface winds.

Highs on Thursday again were well above average in the upper 70s to mid-80s.

Not much change on Friday thru the weekend. Offshore night and morning winds continue, locally gusty at times but under advisory criteria (10-20mph mostly). These winds do turn back onshore in the afternoons before repeating the offshore cycle.

Monday some onshore gradients look more likely. Several models are showing a low-pressure system flying thru California Tuesday.

There are a few issues with this system. It will move very quickly, meaning it will not be around long enough to deposit much rainfall. While cold, the system doesn't look to bring much moisture with it. The trajectory is important, if it can get over water for a bit it would help but after a few weeks of offshore flow, the atmosphere is pretty dry over land. To me, it looks like if it rains, it won't rain much. Under .10" for most and hundredths look more likely. It should be said some models question any measurable rain at all.

After that it looks like another mostly dry run to the end of the month when some models try to get the door open to more systems. We should hope this develops because if the current forecast holds our small rain shortage for the season will grow to something more significant.

The week-to-week drought update did show some slight worsening, but very slight. Lakes also saw little change but a quick glance at capacity suggests more rain would definitely be welcomed.