11:24pm Update from KSBY Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde:
Over the course of today, I became more convinced that I might have to add rain potential to the forecast Monday. Looks like a splash and dash system drops in the from the PacNW. Several models are seeing it. Nothing huge but at the end of the rain season to add anything is a good thing, especially in the midst of a drought.
———- from the earlier posting —————
After a 10-day heatwave followed by muggy and unstable air that moved in with the leftovers of Kay, we make yet another shift in the weather with cooler air moving in for an extended run.
There is a very slight chance of some convection at the highest elevations of the Santa Barbara county mountains (for the next few hours), there is a better chance of activity in Ventura and Los Angeles county, but at that, it is still rather low. Essentially that's it for the lingering impacts of "Kay".
Moving forward it is the zonal flow of the jet stream that takes control. All "zonal flow" means is that the jet stream path is more west to east (as opposed to large ridges or troughs). Zonal flow tends to be cooler as most pressure changes are transitional, no strong high pressure refusing to budge. It also tends to be a little breezier and also includes afternoon onshore breezes. All this argues for a cooler forecast.
Additionally, the height of the marine layer (marine cooled air) will be higher than it has been in some time. This allows more cool air into the interior valleys and also includes the potential for overnight and early morning clouds in the valleys.
I like beaches to stay in the 60s the balance of the week with the coastal valleys in the 70s and 80s with the interior in the 80s. The interior temps should stay below average the entire week and coming weekend while coastal valleys are a little under the average in general but do flirt with average temps a few days.
However, there are some signs that later this month warmer than average highs could return. The Climate Prediction Center is noting that in their 8-14 day outlooks.