Update: 9:32pm 12-21-22 from Dave Hovde:
The 0z models are coming in. The thing I was looking for was more information and detail regarding Tuesday of next week into 2023. The GFS and the GDPS (Canadian) thru 240 hours (New Year's Day) like 1+" potential with some 2" potential for the Central Coast.
Earlier runs of the GFS were not consistent, and generally showed less but these 2 new outputs place it close to the 12z EURO's view of .5-1.5" and some higher potential. To boil that technical talk down: models are showing some consistency into New Year's Day of a wet run beginning not long after Christmas ends.
——————from my prior story————————-
Wednesday was a warm one for much of the area with highs in the 60s and some scattered 70s.
A ridge of high pressure is just off the coast fueling the warm and dry weather.
A front likely weakens the high pressure a little on Thursday leading to slightly cooler highs, with the peaks generally in the 60s.
That said, the ridge regains strength over the Christmas weekend for more highs in the 60s and low 70s, some mid-70s are likely.
The warm weather continues Monday, but Tuesday it looks like rain returns to the area. Models currently show a frontal boundary moving in to the area, but some models show significant weakening on arrival. I think rain is likely but not exactly a huge storm.
What is interesting in the extended forecast from after Christmas thru the first week of 2023 is that a series of fast-moving systems look to hit the area. I like to call these splash and dash storms, none very strong but cumulatively the rainfall is helpful. Having time in between systems allows water to flow into lakes and get absorbed as opposed to having huge one-and-done storms where some water floods off rather than being captured and/or absorbed.
