January was a rain dud for the Central Coast and thus far February is also a major disappointment. We are running out of time to add rain this month, but at least there are some systems to consider.
The first is rolling quickly down the coast right now. Already Monday was much cooler than the weekend because the winds turned around from offshore to onshore.
Tuesday a cold trough digs into The West. The problem, that we talked at length about last week, is the track. The trough is too far east. This means surface low pressure is not over the ocean where it can pick up moisture. As it is the low tracks over the California and Nevada border and is cold and windy but not that wet. I'm not saying there is 0% chance of a few drops, but I'm pretty confident that we won't see much...certainly nothing significant for the monthly or seasonal rain picture.
Highs on Tuesday look to languish in the 50s and lower to mid-60s at best. NW Winds in the afternoon look to be in the 20-30mph range. The higher winds will also whip up some swell: 10-12ft potential is there from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning and a high surf advisory is already in place.
The lows Tuesday night into Wednesday look potentially very cold in the 20s in the deep interior and the Santa Ynez valley with some coastal lows also dipping into the 30s.
Despite the cool start to the week, the second half of the week does warm back into the mid to upper 60s for much of the area with some lower 70s as well.
Next weekend will not be as warm as the last but 60s and 70s are likely before another cold and windy but not that wet system next Monday.
Some climate models are indicating some hope for March and April.
These climate models have been decidedly on the dry side and this is a bit of a shift so before we sell the farm we'll want to see similar output on model runs this week. I'll let you know what they say.