The forecast gets warmer as the week progresses

Sunshine on California's beautiful Central Coast
Posted at 6:34 PM, Feb 07, 2022
and last updated 2022-02-07 21:34:14-05

Another large ridge is developing over The West which will drive another offshore wind event this week. It really isn't the strength of the event that is as important as the duration.

Already Tuesday the Central Coast looks to improve on Monday's warmer than average conditions. Easterly flow will set up later tonight for the area but generally less than 20mph winds from the east.

During the morning Tuesday, we should see some areas where the winds are past 25mph early before slowing in the mid-afternoon.

This should be enough to drive temps up into the 70s with some scattered 80s. Wednesday and Thursday similar conditions appear to be present and some upper 70s and to mid-80s look likely and some upper 80s or better can't be ruled out in isolated areas. It does look like SoCal could break 90 and there is already an excessive heat watch is in place.

We might peak Wednesday or Thursday and then perhaps back a few degrees back into the weekend, but I wouldn't be surprised if we just level off near the peak thru the coming weekend. Models are suggesting earlier next week temps should drift back into the 70s for most.

With all this heat it probably makes sense that no rain is in the short-term forecast. If we go looking for it we can find a few showers in the longer-range GFS model past mid-month however the bullish 18z run lke ess than .25" thru the 23rd and the earlier 12z run barely found enough to measure.

Even the most bullish outlooks would still add inches to the rain deficit since Jan. 1. And now most of the area is actually in a deficit since the beginning of the rain season Oct. 1st. We had been holding on to a narrow surplus until very recently, and only Paso Robles has a small surplus and given the current forecast that also looks to disappear soon.