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The heat returns inland and scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday

Avila Beach with late-day sun
Posted at 3:47 PM, Jun 20, 2022

We begin this week with temperatures recovering from generally mild to cool weekend numbers.

Summer officially starts at 2:13am with the solstice.

We've been on this temperature roller-coaster for a few weeks now. Temps continue to rise into Tuesday with triple digits highs possible inland while coastal valleys also look warmer than average with only beaches remaining in the 60s.

After Tuesday things look interesting. An upper-low drops out of the Pac-NW. This will provide some mid-level lift and instability Wednesday.

Models are showing some scattered thunderstorm potential. This looks most likely in LA/Ventura counties however modeling does show potential moving into Santa Barbara and SLO counties as well. The most likely areas to see any scattered thunderstorm potential would be higher elevations and the interior where the heat and instability intersect.

The upper low actually lingers Thursday and additional scattered thunderstorms may be likely again in the same areas. Now it might sound like good news anytime we have a rain chance the concern with scattered thunderstorms is actually dry-lightning and it's potential to start fires. Scattered storms can provide brief moderate to heavy rains but it does tend to be isolated and are not really an aide against drought conditions because it isn't sustained. Friday the upper low moves out.

The upper low doesn't have a huge impact on temps, down just a little while it is around, and temps immediately recover to 100 inland with the 70s and 80s at coastal valleys.

The 6-10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows the monsoon in the Desert SW with local rain potential gone but the heat lingering.