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The holiday weekend for the Central Coast still looks very warm but after it rain is likely to return

Posted at 5:31 PM, Dec 23, 2022
and last updated 2022-12-23 20:54:52-05

While most of the rest of the United States deals with a huge winter storm, the Central Coast couldn't be quieter. We started the day with some clouds but the sun has come out Friday and temperatures are again very mild.

Temperatures are actually likely to warm over the Christmas weekend with some mid to upper 70s potential for some Sunday before temps ease a little Monday.

Tuesday a storm system arrives, likely in the afternoon, and it looks to have some decent potential. Models are really all over the place on this system. At times models suggest up to 3" are possible but then retreat a little. Right now our forecast is .25-2" with some areas exceeding 2.5". I'd expect forecast revisions as models have not really settled in for a consistent view of this. Again, models all see a system but the devil is in the details.

Additionally, models also see a series of other impulses which should bring more rain to California, but like the Tuesday system, the timing and intensity are still in question (even more so). The subsequent systems don't look as strong as the Tuesday-Wednesday system but this could also change.

The upper air pattern is "open" meaning next week there are no high-pressure ridges for a storm to climb or that would steer a system out of the area. It is good news for rain. These series of splash and dash systems can be great in that they rarely produce warnings and the rain can add up. I don't think the Tuesday system qualifies as a splash-and-dash as it is quite strong, but those after likely do qualify.

I like it generally active from the 27th thru and including the 1st of Jan. After that models are hinting the active pattern could break down.