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The holiday weekend forecast starts cool but warms

Posted at 4:50 PM, May 24, 2024

Quick Look

  • Strong onshore flow and a deep marine layer will bring recurring night-through-morning low clouds, fog, and patchy drizzle.
  • Expect better clearing and warmer temperatures starting Sunday.

Short Term Forecast Details

Today began with ample clouds along the coast and some interior areas, but skies cleared well by mid-day. Gusty northwest winds are reaching advisory levels across much of southwestern Santa Barbara County this evening.

Later tonight and into Saturday, a broad northwest flow pattern aloft will take over. While there will be a surge of clouds extending well into the interior tonight, it should be less dense. Saturday morning will see these clouds, but expect more sunshine in most areas by the afternoon.

Strong north-to-south pressure gradients will likely produce another round of advisory-level winds across the southwestern coast of Santa Barbara County and the western Santa Ynez mountains late Saturday afternoon and evening.

The net impact of the winds will be to help skies clear nicely like Friday but the direction will keep temps on the cool to mild side:

Saturday night into Sunday, more clouds will develop, but they won’t extend as far inland. Most areas will see mostly sunny skies by Sunday afternoon, with a few degrees of warming as high pressure builds.

Monday will be similar to Sunday, with slightly more clearing and warming. The warming will be most noticeable inland, with beaches and near-coastal valleys seeing temperatures in the 60s and low 70s due to continued marine influence.

Long Term

Models show an upper low moving towards the coast of southwestern Canada by Tuesday, then dropping slowly southeastward with a trough extending into northern California. This will weaken the ridge by mid-week, resulting in coastal and beach temperatures leveling out in the 60s and 70s, while inland temperatures could warm to the mid and possibly upper 80s next week.