This week the Central Coast has seen a lot of night and morning cloud cover along with pockets of mist and drizzle with a strong afternoon breeze, occasionally prompting some advisories in Santa Barbara county. There is no wind advisory in place today.
7:40a compared to 3p ... we went from deep, thick low clouds and fog to mostly sunny. pic.twitter.com/sVQpZqmSvs— Dave Hovde (@tvdave) July 6, 2022
High temps so far (as of 3:28p), current conditions and winds. pic.twitter.com/dNXTuwVQ8d— Dave Hovde (@tvdave) July 6, 2022
That will change a bit in my forecast. Inland temps will start to warm. Subtle changes Thursday. We will see low clouds rush inland again this evening and overnight, again even reaching interior valleys.
Marine clouds rush back into coastal and even interior valleys later this evening and overnight but a much better retreat Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds the extent of marine influence will be limited. pic.twitter.com/1xIXAS4nFP— Dave Hovde (@tvdave) July 6, 2022
Here is a look at some hourly forecasts for key climate types for Thursday. Not how inland temps return to 90+, we go up from there. City-specific outlooks are available for anywhere (local, national, international) with the KSBY Microclimate Weather App. pic.twitter.com/Elk9MTw9kC— Dave Hovde (@tvdave) July 6, 2022
This deep marine layer has all been thanks to a trough of low pressure just off the coast.
Towns and temps for Thursday.. cool at beaches, mild in coastal valleys, and warming a little inland. More significant warming inland takes place Friday. pic.twitter.com/jaTQBKQoDB— Dave Hovde (@tvdave) July 6, 2022
However, this trough is lifting out slowly. By Friday only some weaker SW flow aloft is left, and heights in the upper atmosphere increase. This means the marine cooled air will be more limited and not reach inland areas by the weekend. This will produce temps in the upper 90s and topping 100 for the weekend in some valley locations.
Inland folks need to brace for some heat, temps back near 100 Friday and even though they could dip into the mid-90s Tuesday I actually think later next week could get VERY hot. Coast will be mitigated by marine influence. pic.twitter.com/6nmfbrgNRr— Dave Hovde (@tvdave) July 6, 2022
Fixing an error... Santa Barbara next Wednesday was shown as 99 on air.. this was a computer data error. pic.twitter.com/EJROmwJT3s— Dave Hovde (@tvdave) July 7, 2022
At the coast and beaches, there will still be plenty of marine influence but even those locations will see less of it by degree. Temps will rise but only into the 80s in the coastal valleys and beaches will see 60s and 70s rather than 50s and 60s. Skies will clear a bit faster as well.
The trough is slowly lifting out leaving some upper-level SW flow over the Central Coast. This will warm the interior but coastal locations and beaches will still see "some" marine moderation. pic.twitter.com/ck7yz8WAT1— Dave Hovde (@tvdave) July 6, 2022
That covers the trend into the weekend. Now early next week temps could dip a few degrees but not a lot. Later next week could get VERY hot inland with some models suggesting temps higher than 105 inland near the end of next week but far too early to place big bets on that, a lot can happen between now and then. I would say however we've avoided long excessive heat runs thus far, this outlook could change that. I don't think I have to say that a long run of really extreme weather inland is not good for fire or drought. Something to watch carefully.