The minor rain and thunderstorm potential continues but for most, it is a small part of the forecast.

Posted at 4:32 PM, Oct 11, 2022
and last updated 2022-10-11 19:38:00-04

For two days now we've been getting model guidance saying essentially: today doesn't look all that active but tomorrow could be.

Today there is more isolated activity in the high country of Santa Barbara and Ventura county. There is also some east-to-west steering which potentially could push developed activity west into more populated areas. Yesterday there was less steering and storms just died near their origin point. Today there is better steering but activity is already waning.

A lot of this is elevated convection. This is where low levels are actually quite stable but mid-level moisture combined with heating can trigger rain and thunderstorms. But this activity is conditional, in this case, the condition is heating. Yesterday and apparently again today we are running out of the heat of the day to keep much going. But also like yesterday models are suggesting tomorrow to be more active.

So, the potential for storms is there but the confidence is not high. I will say the upper-level low drawing activity west does look a little stronger Wednesday and a little closer, so I am not writing off the potential for isolated to scattered rain and t-storms but again the best potential is at high elevations and there could be westward drift over the populated areas but at that rain potential (if it even happens) is under .10" other than high elevations where more is possible.

That's a lot of discussion for a minor part of the forecast for most. Outside of this mid-level potential, the low levels are an absolute snooze. There is plenty of night and morning cloud cover, in fact, I think it'll be significantly deep Wednesday so I backed coastal temps off a bit but left inland temps where they are.

The upper low eventually trucks over the area this weekend cooling temps down (and taking the minor rain chance with it). Another upper low spins up next week to keep conditions similar to the weekend temps.