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The weather pattern shifts next week but rain is not a "slam dunk"

Cloud coastal skies
Posted at 4:47 PM, Dec 02, 2021

Temps too a huge slide on Thursday:

This week the Central Coast has been locked in under a large ridge in the upper atmosphere, sure some low clouds developed at the coast but the large-scale pattern still has the main jet stream branch well north of the area.

Until that pattern shifts, the chances for rain are not great. The good news is there are now more signs of a possible pattern change.

Let's take things one step at a time: first the outlook for Friday and the weekend.

Temperatures will vary from below normal near the coast, near normal for the valleys, and above normal for the interior. A large factor here will be the marine clouds at the beaches and near coastal valleys as stronger offshore winds we saw earlier this week have gone away.

We'll see some warming in most areas Sunday into Monday to above normal as high pressure builds again along with locally gusty northerly winds.

Tuesday is when we start to see some potential for change. Right now most models are showing an "inside slider" which is an area of low pressure with an inside trajectory, rather than an over-the-ocean trajectory. These can produce showers but more often than not they are larger wind makers. I think there is a very small chance at a drop or two with a front moving thru the area Tuesday but something on the order of 10%.

Models have also been showing some agreement that later next week also offers potential, Thursday or Friday. Now most models show "something", what that could entail is something models don't align on very well. Right now the American GFS and some other models show rain potential the EURO outlooks are still not bullish on much if anything. There is a bit more agreement on something rather than nothing and beyond that, in the truly speculative range of the modeling there is also more encouragement of an active Pacific not bottled up too far north but not worth trying to figure out details beyond next week until better alignment develops. No, not a slam dunk but at least there are more data points of encouragement than there were in prior weeks.