The weekend looks cooler with more morning clouds

Lake Nacimiento with low lake levels
Posted at 3:34 PM, Oct 14, 2022
and last updated 2022-10-14 19:42:00-04

This week did see an upper low produce some light showers across the area, mostly in Santa Barbara county with most locations, where rain was measurable getting a few hundredths of an inch.

That low will track south of the Channel Islands thru SoCal this weekend. It'll be close enough to us on the Central Coast to deepen the marine layer with some pockets of mist/drizzle with the deeper clouds. In SoCal this could produce some rain and even a t-storm possibility Saturday into Saturday PM.

The weekend stays on the cooler side locally with some warming early next week.

After the upper-low kicks out a ridge builds. This is important in that current modeling now shows that ridge holding off an upper low which spins up. Earlier this week it appeared that the upper low would drift east and bring the Central Coast or SoCal some decent rain potential.

This notion has been dismissed the last couple of days, and today's models are again against any kind of significant rain. The American GFS model does take the dying upper low over the area Friday for perhaps a sprinkle or two, other models don't think the low holds together enough for this potential. The GFS has been slow on the trends this week so going to opt for the dry forecast at this point.

The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center likes a forecast leaning to slightly warmer than average with some high than average potential for rain, the first I agree with the latter I am less certain of based on what I am seeing.