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The weekend will be dry but cold at times but a strong storm is still likely early next week

Sun halo over the Central Coast
Posted at 4:30 PM, Dec 10, 2021

The Central Coast is in between weather systems this weekend. The cold front that passed thru the area Thursday producing some showers also ushered in a cold air mass. With clear skies tonight the low temperatures will be at hard freeze potential in the interior and frost advisory conditions for coastal portions of the Central Coast and advisories are in place for both.

Highs this weekend will range from the mid-50s to the mid-60s. We will start to see some increasing clouds over the course of Sunday prior to rain arrival.

The latest forecast shows rain as early as Sunday night for the NW portion of SLO county but this is a large system and it will take time for the rain to progress south. We will also see increasing south winds which will draw additional moisture into the storm system which will be most impactful Monday into Tuesday.

Models differ on rain projections with the American GFS still liking totals to stay under 3" but the EURO model likes 1-5" of rain and is generally the guidance most forecasts are based on at the moment.

Most of the forecast attention continues to be in the late Monday night/Tuesday time frame which is when the models have consistently been advertising the brunt of this storm hitting this area.

Models have backed off a little bit but the storm still looks strong.

Rain rates still have a good chance of at least reaching the lower end of established debris flow thresholds.

Thunderstorms are not currently in the forecast but can`t be completely ruled out.

Snowfall is expected to remain confined to elevations mostly above 7000` for much of the storm.

After a dry but cool day Wednesday, some ensemble solutions are showing a weak system coming through later Thursday into Friday.