Thursday will likely see more clouds and cooler temperatures

Port San Luis
Posted at 4:56 PM, Nov 17, 2021
and last updated 2021-11-17 20:45:06-05

This week continues to be a major departure from last week's record warmth. Wednesday saw early low clouds which retreated for partly cloudy skies but temperatures remained in check near seasonal norms.

The change for Thursday and Friday will be additional and more stubborn clouds. There is a frontal feature crawling toward California, this will increase the onshore flow and also deepen the marine layer. Low clouds will be more pervasive both Thursday and Friday and many beaches and near coastal valleys look to remain mostly cloudy. This will push highs back into the mid-60s for most. Friday looks even cooler as the frontal system arrives, but it is far too weak for rain (perhaps some marine drizzle).

The weekend will see some slow warming for coastal areas which continues into next week.

Long-term weather looks quiet until the end of the month (if not longer). Today's mid-range models found some potential around the 29th for rain. The American GFS liked it in back-to-back runs today but other models including ensembles don't see it or don't make much of it. I think there are two ways of seeing it: one - not much is happening until the end of the month; two - at best any pattern change looks to wait until late November if not early December at the earliest. Why do I say that? Because climate models which showed a string of impulses rolling thru Northern CA on yesterday's runs don't even like that in today's runs. Suffice to say the long-term indicators are mixed and inconsistent. In a La Nina year likely best to lean into more dry assumptions about long-term chances.