Variable clouds thru the weekend but temperatures remain mild

Virga clouds over Central Coast of California
Posted at 4:22 PM, Jan 13, 2022
and last updated 2022-01-13 21:09:05-05

It is a somewhat complicated weather pattern in place. Currently, there is an upper-level trough working thru the jet stream to our north and an upper low spinning away off the SoCal coastline.

The flow around the low to the south continues to pump mid and upper-level clouds into the Central Coast. Clouds at this altitude generally don't produce much rain as anything that falls can easily get absorbed by drier air on the way to the surface. Today's satellite/radar composites show exactly that, a lot of cloud cover and some radar returns to our south but ground equipment is not picking up any measurable rainfall.

There is some very light offshore flow which looks to increase later Friday into Saturday however models also show that low to our south continuing to push clouds north occasionally over the weekend. I like a forecast of variable clouds thru the weekend.

The pattern to the north is also influential. The trough passes tonight to be replaced by a cold high-pressure system which will recharge the offshore flow pattern. Since it is in the wake of a cold trough the offshore will warm us a little but not as dramatically as the offshores at the beginning of this week did.

The low to the south is in the process of getting stronger, it could produce a widely scattered shower early Saturday but not much if it happens at all.

I think the bigger story Saturday is the offshore wind. Higher winds in the Santa Lucias could even near advisory criteria, but more likely in the higher elevations than at the coast.

Sunday the winds should weaken but likely still on the locally breezy side.

Monday that upper low makes its last push. Like Saturday there is perhaps a small shower chance but I don't want to oversell it. I think it is more of a SoCal event than here, if rain falls it will likely also be very light.

I don't see any convincing signs of rain in the deeper extended forecast at this point.