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Very little rain potential until the end of the month

Morro Bay
Posted at 3:42 PM, Nov 16, 2022
and last updated 2022-11-16 19:52:19-05

Not a surprise that the short-term forecast has no rain potential in it, winds are dry and offshore. Skies have been clear and the sun is out producing some mild temps.

The next chance, even though it is a slight one, is Wednesday this week. Models have at times have hinted at a few showers. Right now, I'm not buying it, or at least putting it in the forecast. This chance is from a fast-moving moisture-starved system. The GFS model has been really good recently, it does show the low pressure on some runs but even when it does it doesn't put measurable rain in the area.

Beyond that the GFS model likes some activity to end the month and begin December. This is also a low-confidence outlook.

For one, it is the last few frames of a deterministic model (which are best ignored than bet on). Secondly, there are some climate pieces that argue that a ridge could set up shop in early December which could shut down activity. So, again, there are only hints and opportunities and not real slam-dunk systems.

So, now we can move on to the short-term forecast. Thursday still looks on the mild side with a lot of 70-degree potential away from beaches.

After that, the weather pattern is fast-moving and progressive. Nothing really sets up shop.

We go from an exiting trough to a ridge to another trough in the upper atmosphere over just a few days.

The net impact will likely be for temps to fade Friday and maybe slightly rebound for the weekend. We are only talking about a few degrees here and there. Then should be back down early next week. Thanksgiving looks dry. If there is anything Wednesday it moves by so quickly to hardly even be a travel concern, and as I said before I don't even have anything in my current forecast.