Warm temperatures into midweek then some cooling into the weekend

Surfers at Morro Bay
Posted at 4:53 PM, Nov 30, 2021
and last updated 2021-11-30 20:55:16-05

The upper-level ridge of high pressure is still in control but I can see some minor changes developing over the next few days.

Before we get to that: we set more records this week. Today three daily high temp records were set:

First off: there is some weakening of the offshore pressure strength. There will still be enough Wednesday for a mostly clear start for most people with warmer than average daytime highs but after Wednesday the winds begin to meander and pick up more onshore gradients. This will bring temps down gently for a few days before rebounding early next week.

The weakening flow has impacted the Southcoast with some dense fog as well:

While the upper ridge flattens a bit there is also an upper-level low (with a weak surface low as well) that looks to track over SoCal between late this week and Saturday which will be one of the causes of the minor cooling.

After the weekend models begin to diverge a bit on the forecast. What the mid-range models share is the view that the huge ridge is likely weaker with some passage of systems coming from the NW. What they don't agree on at the moment is if that equates to any rain opportunities. The American GFS model likes a system around the 5th and another follow-up system later while the EURO likes the first system a little later, around the 6th or 7th and for it to be further east not offering CA rain. Considering the model bias toward getting something rolling late in the runs, I am leaning toward the dry solution at this point. Suffice to say the forecast after the weekend could be seeing some changes if models start to group around a solution.