Good Morning Central Coast! Today (Tuesday) is going to be an interesting one, some storms have formed in the Central Valley and into the Sierras and while we can use all the rain possible any rain falling on the Central Coast is a minimal chance. What we are more likely to experience is lightning associated with the storms striking our very dry vegetation without any rain to limit the risk of fire.
Diving into these storms first, they are all associated with a upper level low pressure system that is spinning right over the Central Coast. This is pulling the marine layer inland over our beaches limiting visibility and on the other side of the low bringing some mid-level lift in the area. This combined with hot inland conditions and hot air at higher elevations in the hills there is enough instability for scattered storms.
This will not be a perfect storm system though. There is not a whole lot of moisture in the system so accumulations of rain will be limited in the Central Valley and likely non existent in the hills of the Central Coast.
The monsoon in Arizona will leak some slightly muggier air into our region but not enough to help much with the ongoing drought.
This also appears to be a mid-level disturbance primarily. This is why dry lightning is an issue. Mid-level systems over dry air mean that the dry air closer to the surface can limit rainfall but it can't stop cloud-to-ground lightning strikes.
These strikes have a long history of starting fires in the Golden State. The Storm Prediction Center has identified part of the Central Coast in both marginal thunderstorm risk areas (which is the lowest (weakest) category of assessment) and also in a dry-lightning and fire weather risk area.
This morning the storms off to our east have created over 700 lightning strikes. Most of these are outside of the Central Coast. That being said even a single strike can ignite our very dry vegetation. This "dry lightning" threat will continue into the evening. pic.twitter.com/lrNB08j4xi— Vivian Rennie (@VivianRennieWx) June 22, 2022
Now, granted, we are on the edge of the area they identify rather than in a bullseye but still, enough potential risk is there for people to be aware.
As far as temperatures go, highs in the interiors Wednesday will be into the 90s with lows on the coast heavily influenced by the marine layer struggling to climb out of the low 60s.
Thursday the upper-level low starts to lift to the northeast we will clear out quickly and see more sunshine through the day.
The upper low may draw temps down a few degrees so when it lifts out temps may warm a little but in essence the warmer than average forecast continues (just with the storm risk removed) for the rest of the week and into early next week as well.
By early next week highs will climb into the triple digits once again in the interior valleys.
Have a great day Central Coast!