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We knew the extended forecast was going to be warm but now 80s are in the forecast

Posted at 3:42 PM, Feb 04, 2022

Other than some overnight clouds the Central Coast saw a lot of sun Friday bringing most high temps back into the 60s with some scattered 70s.

The pattern producing this is the offshore flow under a ridge in the upper atmosphere. Not only is this a consistent forecast in the short term, it looks as if this feature lingers to mid-month.

More non-advisory strength offshore winds continue thru the weekend. N-NE winds up to 20mph shifting temporarily to the west in the afternoons before resuming light offshore flows overnight.

Today the American GFS 18z model is showing the pattern-breaking mid-month to let a few systems in. This is a flip-flop from yesterday when the same model showed the ridge continuing.

Other models disagree keeping the pattern mostly quiet until the end of the month. At this point leaning into more of the same seems reasonable until stronger evidence arrives to change the outlook. This is essentially what the Climate Prediction Center has been doing with their 8-14 day outlooks.