Weekend temps are still mild but start a fade that accelerates next week

Posted at 4:54 PM, Nov 25, 2022
and last updated 2022-11-25 19:54:46-05

Thanksgiving and Black Friday on the Central Coast were greeted with a lot of highs in the 70s. The weekend will not be "as" warm but still many highs will remain in the upper 60s and low 70s.

The warm air has been generated by a ridge of high pressure in The West. That pattern is ending. Initially, a series of low-pressure waves flatten the ridge and by Monday a large trough of low pressure will usher in a cold front and a low. However after days of warm and dry air the airmass is just too dry to expect much from this front and low. I think clouds and breezy conditions will be the biggest thing folks notice Monday. Highs also continue to drop from the current levels near 70 to upper 50s and low 60s by Tuesday and mid-50s and low 60s are likely late next week.

So if Monday is not a good rain opportunity, when IS the next decent chance? The answer is actually widely agreed upon in computer modeling. Models show a large low making its way to California around next weekend (not this weekend). Right now the arrival could be Friday or Saturday. Models are close on the timing and size of the system but not on the trajectory or rain potential. The American GFS likes a lower impact system for the Central Coast, under .50" while the EURO likes 1-4+".

It must be said this is just too early to pick a horse in the race, a lot can happen in a week. If I had to lean, I might lean to the higher end. The GFS is counting on a south trajectory and a bit of a fizzle from a very large system. EURO is further north. EURO has been overly aggressive thus far this season locally, however, I think a northern track might be a bit more likely. Again, just something to watch at this point. At least it has some interesting potential.