Weekend will begin a weather transition

Coastal Sunset
Posted at 4:20 PM, Nov 19, 2021

The leftovers from a decayed cold front linger over the Central Coast tonight into early Saturday. The mix of low clouds with high clouds overhead looks to continue into mid-day Saturday.

The upper-level winds start to build a ridge over The West later Saturday, this will drive surface high pressure and locally strong offshore winds.

This offshore event is a legitimate Santa Ana for Southern California where some wind gusts likely hit 50mph. Locally we are on the edge of the strongest pressure gradients. This will produce E to SE winds up to 35mph. If you combine that with the outlook for 80+ degree highs and projected low relative humidity in the 6-20% range: it is enough for a Fire Weather Watch to be active Sunday. This means there is higher fire threat and if a fire were to start it might have the potential to grow quickly and also display more aggressive fire behavior.

Monday also looks warm as the ridge is in place but some cooling is expected. Tuesday a cold front passes thru the area and brings temps back into the 60s and 70s. Other than that the Thanksgiving week looks dry and mild.

The American GFS model had been hinting this week that some type of rain system was likely at the end of the month, today the model is kicking that potential into early December and combining it with a string of cold fronts working thru NorCal. There are other models which are also more optimistic about early December potential. It is important to note that outlooks 2+ weeks in advance are just that: outlooks and not forecasts. They can change quickly and completely reverse assumptions. What you look for in those outlooks are more broad features. The good news is that several agree on a more "open" pattern at the moment.