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Dry weather for now but mid-December could bring significant changes

Posted at 4:42 PM, Nov 30, 2020
and last updated 2020-11-30 20:58:29-05

The position of the jet stream is not favorable for systems to make a run at the Central Coast. In fact, the Pacific high-pressure center is essentially blocking anything from getting in.

This high will continue to produce night and morning offshore before turning weakly onshore in the afternoon. The offshore direction is very dry and along with clear skies more freezing inland temps are likely each morning before recovering into the 60s and low 70s this week.

At the coast, more mild highs are likely as well in the 60s and 70s.

There is one exception to the generally mild wind regime: there is a wind advisory in the Santa Barbara County mountains until early Tuesday morning. Winds of 20-30 with gusts to 50mph are possible.

If you are looking for something a little different, it looks to me like more northwest flow sets up for the second half of the week as a weak low-pressure system pushes thru, at most this will perhaps produce some marine clouds for night and morning hours.

Long-range models continue to be pessimistic about rain in the short term forecast, anything which manages to get thru the ridge will run into the dry air in place and really sap any system's strength.

If we get into the second week of December though, models are seeing a pattern shift. Looks like the door swings open as early as the 11th and stays open to a potential series of low-pressure systems. This could main several inches of rain, but a lot can happen between now and then. Best to put a pin in it and watch and see if we get model consistency and actual low-pressure development along expected areas.