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Rain on the way

Posted at 2:27 PM, Nov 17, 2020
and last updated 2020-11-17 20:56:15-05

A cold front is pushing down the state and will arrive on the Cenrtal Coast (the northern part) around sunset. This front will drag down the coast in the darkness with peak activity between 10p-3a for most of the area. The front looks to dissipate in the morning hours, essentially during the commute.

This front will have the best dynamics north and rainfall will drop considerably inland and south. While the system is trying to pull in more moisture with a preceding southerly wind it also is fighting the fact that several days of offshore flow over the weekend and Monday dried the air out.

I like .25-1" along the northern SLO coastline. Away from that area a general range of .10-.40" is possible but blending to light to .10 for inland and south as graphics indicate.

After the front departs offshore flow in the night and morning hours resumes. I like NE winds 10-20 turning back onshore in the afternoons. I think Friday looks like a windy day with 20-30mph coastal winds possible. These windy condition are probably with us for the afternoons into the weekend.

The long range models are waffling about a system before Thanksgiving. Yesterday American and European models liked this notion but today those two models also backed away from it. This far out best to look at this time frame (next Wednesday) as something we need to keep our eyes on, especially due to the travel implications.