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Storm system poised to move in overnight

Posted at 4:39 PM, May 15, 2019

A cold front will move thru the area tonight bringing rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms into Thursday morning. Some lingering scattered showers will take place Thursday as NW winds increase to 15-25mph with some higher gusts. All this will push temps down significantly.

The area will be dry by Friday, but another storm system brings a chance for rain Saturday night.

Looks like the Central Coast will see 4-8 hours of light to locally moderate rain when the front slides thru the area between 9pm on the northern SLO coast to an exit near Ventura county by 5am. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms with the front and locally higher rain rates but at this time no flash flood watches are in place for potential debris flow as the rates should remain under critical criteria, but it will have to be monitored. No big debris flows are expected.  Rain projections of .25-1″ for most with amounts up to 1.5″ possible in higher elevations and SW faces.  This is an adjustment down a little from prior forecasts.

Dave Hovde-KSBY

Our RPM model for the overnight-Thursday system. Recent runs backed off a little but still show .25-1″ potential with some exceeding 1.5″ in hills. Going to scale the range back a little.

The beginning of Saturday looks fine but clouds will increase in the PM and late pm into Sunday morning another front with rain moves through. I think this looks like a .10-.30″ event. Sunday will clear out in the afternoon.

Dave Hovde-KSBY

Here is the Saturday front coming in.. modeling is showing a little earlier arrival. The EURO loves it, says .50″+ potential but the American GFS only likes .10-.30″. This matters if we are chasing…

Monday looks dry and cooler.

There are now significant questions about a Tuesday system. Models are backing off but still wise to monitor the pattern as the low looks just north of us.

There is potential for SLO to break a long standing rain record going back to the early 1900s BUT it would take all the systems to hit with max potential and as of Wednesday PM it doesn’t look like everything is entirely together for that to happen.

Dave Hovde-KSBY

The record for May rain in SLO is 4.22″ from 1906. Average rain for the month is only .43″. This is the EURO outlook thru next Friday. Could we get there and break the record? Right now the…

However, it sure is interesting that we are considering it. This is certainly a high amount of activity for May.