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When local counties expect to reach their peak number of coronavirus cases

Posted at 6:22 PM, Apr 06, 2020
and last updated 2020-04-07 02:24:16-04

Some national experts are calling this the worst week for COVID-19 with cities like New York possibly reaching their peak in cases. But when will we hit our peak locally?

In Santa Barbara County, health officials don't expect the area will hit its peak until sometime in May.

Today, San Luis Obispo County officials said they don't believe they’ve peaked either, and it's too hard to say when that time will come,

San Luis Obispo County announced no new cases of the virus during Monday's press conference, making it the second time in the last three days there hasn't been an uptick in cases. County officials say that could be due to the limited testing capabilities countywide.

While New York braces for what they believe to be their peak, San Luis Obispo County health officials are unsure when that will be for the Central Coast.

"I don't believe that we've seen our peak and I have a really hard time telling you when we will. All of our models have proven wrong, not wrong, but they need to be adjusted. Our models are only as good as the day we put in the information," said Dr. Penny Borenstein, SLO County Health Officer.

Dr. Borenstein said she expected cases to double every three to five days but that hasn't been the case so far, making it even harder to say for certain when the area will see its highest number of cases.

Santa Barbara County cases continue to rise from day to day, with 18 new reported cases of COVID-19 on Monday, bringing the total to 192.

While their health officials don't believe the county's peak will be until May, there is some good news in their fight against the virus.

"We are now on day 18 of the governor-implemented statewide order and I am encouraged that there is a slight deceleration of anticipated new infections," said Dr. Henning Ansorg, Santa Barbara County Health Officer.

Dr. Borenstein doesn't expect the peak will be the same in every state and in every county across the country but mentions while the peak is hard to predict, it's a good thing it isn't happening at the same time across the nation.

The same timeline is being echoed statewide, as today Governor Gavin Newsom announced that California isn't expected to reach its peak number of cases until May.

Dr. Borenstein said that while the slow rise in cases might be due to a lack of tests or the strong mitigation efforts in place, it's important for the community to stay the course on social distancing.