Rain next week still looks likely

Posted at 4:07 PM, Mar 06, 2020
and last updated 2020-03-06 20:54:16-05

Cloud cover will increase tonight ahead of a weak cold front for light showers on Saturday and cooler temperatures. More significant rain is likely Monday through Wednesday.

Onshore winds have produced mild temps and partly cloudy skies to close the week but changes develop quickly tonight. The trough coming in will significantly deepen the marine layer tonight and push low clouds well inland and up the lower coastal mountain slopes.

We'll see some scattered light showers (not everyone will get rain from this cold front) late tonight into Saturday. Totals from this first opportunity will be very light, under .10". Sunday may be the toughest call in the forecast, models have been back and forth on rain chances. Our model at KSBY is showing scattered showers from some SE flow in advance of the Monday low pressure system, other models keep us dry Sunday.

Monday-Wednesday looks active with Tuesday being the peak of wet weather with some lingering activity into Wednesaday.

The storm has some interesting elements: a cold low from the Gulf of Alaska and a weak to moderate "atmospheric river". Modeling right now is slow with the arrival of the upper low and places the main subtropical push south of us, that said not much would have to change to see the focus shift north. Best forecast now seems to be a broad brush of 1-3". As I mentioned yesterday there is a chance of thunderstorms as well which brings in higher rain rate potential into play. This will have to be watched.

As the atmospheric river is warm the snow levels are looking pretty high, and not local concern. Right now models show some lingering showers into Wednesday.

Forecast looks Thursday and Friday but more showers the following weekend look possible as well. No matter how all this works out in terms of specifics, it is a major pattern change and a badly needed one for parts of California with the growing drought.