We are in the wake of an exiting trough of low pressure, that building high pressure is producing night and morning offshore winds. This negates the cooling influence of the cool Pacific waters. This will result in coastal valleys getting into the 80s Friday with interior temperatures in the the upper 80s, even beaches will see 70s. Skies will also be mostly sunny outside of some limited marine clouds in the night-time hours. Each day will see onshore winds return in the afternoon.
Saturday looks even warmer with both inland and coastal valleys in the upper 80s and lower 90s with beaches pushing into the low to mid 70s, not bad for mid-September. There will be some afternoon onshore wind but not that strong, hence the warmer temps.
Sunday should be the peak of the heat but Monday will still be warm just 3-5 degrees cooler with the offshore weakening a little.
Another round of generally low grade Sundowners expected this evening, mainly west of Goleta and San Marcos Pass. Will likely see advisory level gusts for a few hours in the Gaviota/Refugio areas but elsewhere speeds should top out in the 15-25mph range. Some northerly winds expected in these areas the next couple nights as well but tonight should be the strongest.
Models continue to struggle with the extended outlook, I am keeping it dry for now and a little above average. To me it looks like an upper low cuts off from the jet-stream over Arizona and it is a forecast wild-card. I don't think it does much.
Longer term we'll have to watch for potential monsoon mugginess and shower potential late next week, it is really early to dial this in much but the pattern looks open on one run.
