The mild weather of this week still looks to change. A developing "atmospheric river" system is still anticipated for northern California with a glancing blow to the Central Coast Friday into early Saturday.
Until that develops, onshore flow and marine influence will still rule the forecast. 50s for highs at the coolest beaches with 60s and low 70s at the coastal valleys with mid-70s inland Thursday. Clouds will linger at beaches but then partially clear. There will be abundant high cloud cover moving into the area Thursday.
Friday afternoon into evening rain starts for SLO county and moves into Santa Barbara county Saturday morning. A period of brief moderate rain should take place Saturday morning before clearing Saturday afternoon and evening.
Models show a fall-off area NW-SE for rain totals. In northern SLO county .75-1.5" of rain is possible, and locally higher along the far NW portion of SLO county. most west facing coastal areas are in a .5-1.5" range but amounts fall off inland to .30-.50" with the SB Southcoast seeing the least rain with .05-.50". If this scenario pans out, there would be little to no risk of debris flow for burn areas.
After the system departs, strong NW winds for Sunda with some offshore winds early next week for a Monday temp bump.
I think the storm path moves north after this system departs for a dry week next week.
