Rain picture next week comes with a lot of uncertainty

Posted at 5:38 PM, Sep 25, 2018
and last updated 2018-09-25 22:12:24-04

We badly need rainfall here on the Central Coast after last winter’s dismal performance with many locations getting 50% or less of average rainfall. Our rain season ends on the 30th with a new season beginning Monday. So, technically speaking the rain possibility we are talking about wouldn’t actually help our current season but rather help the next. That said the rain chances are interesting. The two major computer models both like some type of rain next week. The European model shows a low dropping into California early next week for showers but ultimately pulling in subtropical moisture for significant rain late next week between .40-1.50″ (it has shown this on the last few runs). The American GFS model also shows a low dropping in Monday for potential showers but also shows a tropical system hitting Baja California with ample rain potential for So Cal but not here. That model shows less than .10″. Suffice to say with such different views of rain potential the best thing is to simply monitor how these math storms actually become real storms and update the forecast when the picture becomes more clear.

Outside of that, more marine low clouds will return again this tonight. Wednesday we’ll see more highs in the low-mid 90s in the inland valleys and mid 70s in the coastal valleys. The beaches will be in the low to mid-60s depending on the rate of marine clearing.

High pressure builds Wednesday and Thursday for generally mild to warm temps before cooling into the weekend. This cool down will be most notable inland where low 80s return for the weekend.

Right now the extended forecast for early next week is 20% chance of rain Monday-Tuesday with potentially better chances late next week but again with a forecast that far out you can and should expect changes.