Fire weather improves with rain prospects around Thanksgiving

Posted at 5:45 PM, Nov 14, 2018

High pressure is still in the area but the winds driving the dangerous fire weather conditions are improving. Red flag warnings for Southern California have been allowed to expire. Thursday and Friday will still be warm for much of the area and as the weekend arrives so does onshore flow and the return of some night and morning marine layer near the coast.

More mid to upper 70s in the SLO interior valleys with 70s and low 80s in the coastal valleys for Friday. The beaches will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s.

Interior overnight lows will still be freezing or slightly cooler, there are no advisories for that since frost and freeze conditions have already taken place.

Models continue to say that rain should fall around Thanksgiving with a series of systems hitting the Western U.S. but details change dramatically run to run: yesterday models liked heavier potential but so far today have backed off. This is not uncommon this far out, stay tuned for details.

This is a statement put out by the National Weather Service Office in Oxnard about the rain potential and the possible impact in burn areas:

It remains very early for forecast accuracy, however, many computer models suggest a storm system could impact southwest California late next week sometime between Friday, Nov. 23 to Sunday, Nov. 25. Details on timing, rainfall amounts, and intensities vary greatly at this time, but confidence is increasing that rain will occur. There could be a potential for heavy rain when this system moves over the region.

Given the recent wildfires and those that are still burning today, we are compelled to get the word out about the potential for any sign of rain in the near future. At this time, it does appear rain may develop sometime over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. We realize that the focus right now is on recovery and repopulating areas impacted by the Woolsey and Hill Fires, but once the fires are out another immediate danger exists for people living below burned hillsides. The potential for debris flows near and below recent burn areas will be likely if heavy rain materializes late next week. It is very important to keep aware of upcoming storms and to educate the public on the dangers of debris flows.