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Rain returns mid-week with significant potential

Posted at 10:22 AM, Nov 26, 2018

This week will start off with very pleasant weather but change Wednesday.  Offshore winds Monday produced very nice skies, but already Tuesday we’ll be watching a front moving down the coastline.  I don’t think it gets here most of Tuesday but we’ll see some transitional weather with increasing clouds especially later in the day.

Rain could begin as light showers as early as Tuesday night and become more intense Wednesday morning, but very likely in the evening and overnight and continuing Thursday.

KSBY’s Microclimate Model showing early Wednesday rain
EURO Model showing potential rainfall

This is a significant system not only will it bring .50-2″ rainfall generally (with locally more in the foothills), we’ll also see intense southerly winds 15-35mph winds and gusts could exceed 45mph.  (Note about the model above, it is a mid-range model with low resolution, higher resolution models are showing some of the lower end of rain projections with more variability in totals).  Should this type of system develop debris flow potential will have to be monitored, some urban and small stream flooding may happen and certainly high surf will also develop.

Infographic about storm from NWS
Infographic about high surf from NWS

Friday the rain will be done but 15-35mph NW winds are expected.

Another system is possible for Saturday with another .25-.75″ of rain and it’ll be cold.  Snow levels could drop to about 3500ft.

In terms of temps: 60s and lower 70s for Tuesday with highs dropping into the 60s during the rain event and for the balance of the week with the exception inland Thursday and again Saturday where highs in the 50s are expected.