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As Tuesday storm winds down another brief lull before another one

Posted at 2:37 PM, Jan 15, 2019

As expected, Tuesday morning a storm system packing rain, winds and some isolated thunderstorms hit the Central Coast and Southcoast.

That storm is continuing to slide to the east and ultimately activity will wane this evening.  It will be a brief break before Wednesday PM-Thursday AM rain returns.  This next storm may not be as intense in terms of rain rates however the length, coverage and rain total potential could be higher than the exiting system.  While rain could return as early as early Wednesday afternoon, moderate to heavy rain peaks Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, and quickly end Thursday morning.

The next storm has more of the atmospheric river to work with.  This means the connection to sub-tropical moisture looks better, so additional flash flood watches may be necessary.  That determination will be made Wednesday since the Wednesday rain arrival looks to be in the evening.

The system looks to have slightly less thunderstorm potential than today’s but it can’t be ruled out.  More S-SW winds 15-30mph.

Also higher waves return.

High Surf Forecast

For the SB / Ventura Southcoast looks like 1-3″ of coastal rain with 4-5″ possible at south facing higher elevations.

For the SLO/SB county Central Coast .75-2.5″

Due to the subtropical nature the snow level looks high: 7000ft.

Rain should start to diminish Thursday morning and end Thursday PM with sunshine returning Friday.  A long run of dry weather begins Friday lasting through next week.  There is a little system but it should stay to the north later Sunday, so at this point I am leaving more rain out of the forecast.