Tonight and much of Friday (all the daylight hours) look quiet. But the situation changes quickly Friday night. Showers will develop around sunset but heavier rain holds off until after midnight. For SLO county the heaviest rain is done by mid-morning. For Santa Barbara/Ventura county the heavy rain potential is from 3a-1p Saturday.
1-3″ rain for the coast, 2-4+” mountains. Rain rates will be .5-1″/hour at times which means debris flow is a possible concern. The system doesn’t look to pack thunderstorms however the connection to the atmospheric river will enhance rainfall…and so will very strong winds.
Southeast winds will increase Friday evening to 30 to 45 mph in SLO county with gusts to 60 possible and 35-50 with 75 mph gusts possible across higher elevations in SB county. The winds will diminish along the Central Coast by late Saturday morning, and in the mountains by late Saturday afternoon. These winds will have the potential to down trees and powerlines, and be dangerous for high profile vehicles.
Dangerous seas are likely due to the winds. Surf will build Sunday (even though the system has moved on) to 12-17ft on west faces.
Wind watches are in place, these will get upgraded to warnings when the system draws closer. Flood advisories, watches or advisories are all possible during the event. Make sure you sign up for alerts through your local counties and have a weather app like KSBY’s weather app which will alert you when new warnings are issued.