Plenty of cloud cover for coastal areas today while inland skies cleared, so there was a real blend on temps from 60s at the beaches to 70s inland. I think we’ll continue to see plenty of coastal clouds Wednesday. Inland some night and morning clouds are again possible but slightly warmer temps are likely Wednesday inland with mid-70s in the forecast.
Things get interesting Thursday. An upper low comes in from the Pacific and merges with a trough backing into the area from the east. This new and stronger upper low starts near the Central Coast and looks to drift SE into southern CA into Saturday.
The big factor fueling another rain chance late in the rain season is an upper trough…. this particular one merges with an upper low sliding west in the Pacific.
What will this mean? I think we could see upper elevation showers and scattered thunderstorms as early as Thursday PM, this will likely stay east of our area but could impact the Santa Barbara county mountains.
We could see rain as early as Thursday PM but Friday into Saturday looks like better timing for most. Showers and even scattered thunderstorms are still possible.
Friday, as the low spins over the Central Coast, some showers are possible anywhere but again instability will be something we’ll need to watch for with scattered thunderstorms possible. There will be cold air high in the atmosphere making these possible, which of course produces the potential for hail and lightning should thunderstorms form.
Models continue to give us differing thoughts on the Thursday PM-Saturday rainfall. Could it be significant, yes.. the EURO likes some places exceeding .50″
The range with the forecast is essentially .10″ to as much as .60″ with locally higher amounts possible near thunderstorms. With the low over us temps will run cooler Thursday and Friday but rebound quickly as the low exists Saturday. I think we probably need to keep the chance for rain and thunderstorms in Saturday should the low be slow to drop out of the area. Activity should be done Saturday night.
Dry weather with decreasing clouds can be expected early next week.