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Chance of showers and thunderstorms begins Friday

Posted at 4:34 PM, May 09, 2019
and last updated 2019-05-09 22:06:08-04

The rain chance we have been talking about all week will be developing tonight into the weekend.

Cecil Horton

Beonksby…Yesterdays East Templeton foggy sunset..From up on Hill off of Hwy 41 E. Templeton.

I think the rain stays to the east until Friday morning when a low will start pulling in showers from the east, combined with some cold air aloft and daytime heating some of the showers will also include scattered thunderstorms, especially at higher elevations and the interior (there is a diminished chance near the coast).

Dave Hovde-KSBY

Time for peak activity looks to be Friday mid-day…but from Friday morning into Saturday afternoon activity is possible.

While the peak of the activity looks to be Friday mid-day and afternoon there will be continued opportunities for scattered rain and thunderstorms into Saturday afternoon.

Dave Hovde-KSBY

The set-up for Friday and Saturday is a complicated stack of upper and lower level low pressure centers. Cold air aloft with decent dewpoints setting the stage for showers and thunderstorms.

The main driver is a cold upper low which moves SW into the area and then dives south into Sunday.

Dave Hovde-KSBY

I think we’ll see a wide range of rain totals from the upcoming system.. again don’t get focused by the numbers here it is the range over the area from as little as light to as much as .75″. This is…

Highly variable rainfall totals are expected:

Coast/Valleys – 0.10 to 0.50 inches
Mountains – 0.50 to 2.00 inches, highest in Ventura County. SLO and SB county should stay under 1″

Currently there are no advisories for the storm but flash flooding and road ponding can happen with thunderstorms. Hail and lightning are other potential concerns to be on alert for.

Dave Hovde-KSBY

This idea popped up a few times this week in long-range forecasting… the idea that late next week could get very wet. This is 9 days of rain accumulation according to the EURO model. Long range…

Beyond this system, Sunday-Wednesday look quiet but a few models show the potential for even more rain with higher amounts later next week into the next weekend. This is speculative since long range models can change quickly but bears some watching.