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Temps dip Tuesday ahead of a big warm up into the weekend

Lone surfer at Cayucos Beach
Posted at 4:32 AM, May 09, 2023

Good morning, Central Coast! Happy Tuesday!

To kick off our morning the winds have turned onshore even more substantially and are bringing in more cloud cover and marine fog. Most of it is a little farther from the surface (good news for the morning commute) but for some spots, including the Santa Ynez valley, there will be some fog for the morning's commute.

The Central Coast has not experienced a lot of warm days this spring and the beginning of this week will hold true to form, but that all changes later this week when a big warm-up develops.

Highs today will stay in the 50s along the western beaches, low 60s in the coastal valleys, and interiors/the SB southcoast will reach towards 70.

Across the board these temps are about 5 degrees below normal for this time of year. Paso Robles average high for May 9th is 78, Santa Maria's is 68. Santa Barbara is close to normal.

Currently, the upper air pattern has a trough digging into The West. That is helping to pull a low pressure into the Bay Area, a few showers are associated with this system and into the mountains there is some thunderstorm risk. Unfortunately for us there isn't enough energy to get much more than a passing raindrop or two.

If you have your heart set on rain, our best chance may be in the mountains of Santa Barbara county into Ventura County. That chance is still minimal.

After this trough departs a large ridge of high pressure starts to build in. The first signs of warming start on Thursday but the trend continues into Saturday. Saturday inland highs will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s with coastal valleys in the upper 70s and lower 80s with beaches in the 60s and 70s.

Saturday is shaping up to be the warmest day of the forecast before some marine layer moves back onshore to cool temps slightly into the early portion of next week.

Looking into the extended forecast there are a couple of features I think could get interesting. The strong ridge will stick around for a couple of days before beginning to "reverse" flow back towards our area. This could mean a few showers for us in the extended forecast as more unstable air from the Southwest move in. This air is associated with the monsoons that are well known in Arizona, aka they have plenty of energy to kick something up around here.

The Climate Prediction Center has put rain chances in our area for the 8-14 day. We are on the edge of that potential, and there is a greater chance east of us, and particularly at higher elevations but it can’t be ruled out here. It is a long way out but still something to look into.

Have a great day!