Good Morning Central Coast, we have made it to the end of the week and more excitingly to the end of the heat wave!
The marine layer has receded quickly off our coast as the looming tropical low pressure system pushes north into the region.
Our heat wave began just as we started September and over the past nine days the heat has encompassed the region bringing record breaking temperatures day after day. To add to the heat there have been statewide flex alerts asking California residents to conserve power during the hottest hours of the day. I am sure many are excited to turn off those fans and AC units, myself included.
Today (Friday) will be another hot one although less so than the past few days. Highs will still be in the triple digits in the interiors, 90s in many coastal valleys with the cooler temps by the coasts.
There has been an excessive heat warning in some capacity for well over a week on the Central Coast. While some branches of that have expired there are still many in place. There is another excessive heat warning posted for Central Coast valleys and Santa Barbara County interiors for Friday lasting until 8:00PM.
Elsewhere the warning has been downgraded to an excessive heat advisory lasting through 8:00PM as well. Either way, stay hydrates and aware of heat through the day today.
Currently, I expect temps to come up at coastal locations a little but with some offshore winds it is entirely possible that extreme heat could develop in coastal valleys. Currently, beaches are not in the warning but if offshore and down sloping winds develop even beaches could get hot.
By this evening our weather "whiplash" will take over with cooler conditions and the chance for some rain. The ruminants of tropical Storm Kay will reach the edge of our high pressure and begin to push against each other. This will simultaneously push the high pressure (the one that built up our heat) north cooling us down and shifting the track of the rain farther out to the Pacific. The system will NOT make landfall but that doesn't mean we will not see impacts.
The track and rain potential are closely related. The last few days have seen rain modeling all over the place. Drastically shifting between runs. At times rain forecasts have ranged from light to several inches of rain. The current outlooks mostly place the heaviest rains in Southern California and also at higher elevations in SoCal, where inches of rain are possible and flood advisories are already posted for that potential.
Check out the system as it passes through southern California this morning...
The further north you go the less rain potential we see. Locally, we will not see nearly as much as farther south. I think light rain (only a few hundredths of an inch) to about half an inch is most likely expected. The higher amounts will only be for areas that get hit by localized thunderstorms. As far as timing goes here is what I think may be our timing.
Friday Evening the first band of storms will move through the area, likely bringing a brief period of rain before clearing out for the overnight hours. Our chances once again rise as we head into the day Saturday with bands of rain possible through the daytime hours. These will be isolated but most communities stand a chance for rain.
Finally by Sunday some lingering showers could move into the region.
Since the storm still has winds of 50+ there is plenty of energy going into the water so the Southcoast will likely see waves of 4-7ft. and a high surf advisory is in place. No rain or flood advisories are currently posted for the Central Coast.
Temps drop dramatically to normal and even below average due to the system, and clouds. The good news is that milder temps look to linger all of next week.
Have a great day Central Coast