Happy Monday, Central Coast! As we close out the first day of the week, sunny skies and warm temps are the story for most of our region. High temps climbed into the 90s for interior valleys, 70s along the coast, and beaches saw 60s.
Aside from the cooler temps, the beaches have seen a lot of marine layer fog and even some light drizzle this morning.
Tuesday will be more of the same, cool and cloudy weather at the beaches, sunshine and heat for the interior valleys. Triple digits are not out of the question.
The warmth lasts through Wednesday afternoon with similar cloudy conditions at the beach.
Wednesday afternoon, things will change significantly. Remnants of Tropical Storm Mario will reach the region and bring us rain chances.
Before I dive into the nitty-gritty, I have a quick disclaimer. While forecasting for this storm, there are a few factors that could drastically change accumulations. Firstly, interior valleys have a very dry air mass in place, which means that at first, much of the rain falling will evaporate before hitting the surface. That will drop accumulation totals and will increase the chance of dry thunderstorms.
The second tricky aspect of the forecast is all due to the tropical nature of the storm. If the core low pressure stays offshore rain totals will stay on the low side but if it pushes onshore we could pick up a more substantial soaking rain across the region.
Now that all that is out of the way here is my forecast for you.
Starting Wednesday afternoon clouds will cover the Central Coast and winds will shift and begin to push rain in from the south.
Overnight into Thursday morning, the rain will arrive in earnest and bring widespread light rain to the region.
On the whole, the rain will be light, but there is expected to be a few pockets of thunderstorms where heavy local rain is expected.
Once the core of the storm moves south, cloud cover will linger through Friday with a few small chances for a lingering shower or two,, but nothing too substantial.
As far as accumulations go this is a pretty good storm. Up to half an inch is possible for Santa Barbara County with most San Luis Obispo County locations picking up closer to a quarter inch. East-west running ridges as well as peaks may pick up a little more.
Into the weekend, a small high-pressure system will build in and clear out skies and bring lots of sunshine to the region as well as a small warm-up.
Here is what that looks like on the 7-day forecast.
For the 8-14 day extended forecast, it looks like the more active pattern is on the way with the potential for a glancing rain chance next week.
Have a wonderful evening!
-Vivian
