Warm conditions will continue to increase by the midweek throughout the Central Coast

Windy Cambria
Posted at 4:45 PM, Oct 15, 2023

Happy Sunday, Central Coast! Here’s a quick breakdown of what we’re expecting to see on Sunday and our transition into the new work week. A significant warming trend is likely to begin today as an upper-level ridge of high pressure builds into the region. For most of the week, we are expecting to see warm and dry conditions with occasional breezy to gusty winds. Luckily, the marine layer’s low clouds and fog will be quite minimal this week. By next weekend, stronger onshore flow will bring much cooler temperatures to the area. Let’s dive in!

On Sunday afternoon, there were patchy low clouds and dense fog along Santa Barbara County and sunny skies covered the area as we expect to have very slight changes for the rest of the day. The beaches and coastal valleys saw some breezy onshore winds this afternoon. The offshore flow and the upper-level ridge of high pressure will contribute to the very warm afternoon across the Central Coast. Highs will be about 5-10 deg above normal for most areas. The interior valleys and lower mountains will reach temps in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Low clouds and fog should affect portions of the Central Coast tonight and Mon morning. With a very shallow marine inversion lingering, patchy dense fog is also expected for any location that has low clouds. Otherwise, mostly clear skies are expected for some areas away from the coast.

The winds will help cool high temps along the beaches and coastal valleys on Monday - but not for the inland areas like North San Luis Obispo County, Santa Ynez Valley, and the Cuyama Valley. Those areas should expect to see highs increase slightly, as temps should reach the upper 80s to mid-90s by Monday afternoon.

The reason why we are seeing these warm conditions start on Sunday is due to an upper-level ridge of high pressure that has moved into the region and it will begin to slowly weaken tonight and Monday, as a weakening upper-level trough moves into Central and Northern California. As the trough moves into the region Monday night, it will be followed by some more upper-level ridging on Tuesday. We are expecting to see temps peak by the midweek.

Our latest models are indicating that some gusty sub-advisory north winds will affect southwest Santa Barbara County this Sunday and Monday evening. Wind gusts in Gaviota and Refugio are expected to move below 40mph. By Monday evening Refugio will then see wind gusts moving up to 44mph around 8 pm, while Gaviota will see winds reaching up to 36 mph.

Our 7-day KSBY Microclimate forecast shows that we are expecting to see a significant cool-down by next weekend! Some offshore flow should be present during the night and morning hours Thursday through Friday, keeping any marine layer clouds off the coast. By early Saturday, low clouds should move back into parts of the Central Coast, then expand along much of the coast and into some adjacent valleys Saturday night into Sunday morning as the marine layer deepens and onshore flow increases.

Daytime temps are expected to be the warmest on Thursday, about 10-15 deg above normal. Temps will then have a gradual cool down Friday through Sunday. It will still be significantly above normal on Friday, several degrees above normal away from the coast on Saturday, and then drop to about 2-5 deg below normal on Sunday.

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Enjoy the rest of your Sunday, Central Coast! Have a wonderful week.