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We'll close the week with mild temps but changes arrive Saturday

Pismo Beach on a warm winter day
Posted at 4:46 PM, Feb 09, 2023

The last few days the Central Coast has been experiencing some highs in the 70s, even some low 80s Thursday.

Friday still has some warmth to it as the ridge of high pressure will weaken but still be able to prove some early offshore flow to boost temps.

There is an approaching low-pressure system and trough Friday which is what will weaken the local high pressure which has been driving the pleasant and warm weather. I like high temps to step back into the mid-60s for most, but some 70s are still possible to close the work week.

Saturday the trough arrives early. This trough will usher in some breezy onshore conditions and should also produce some lighter scattered showers. The offshore winds of the last few days have certainly dried things out locally, so the approaching system will not have a lot of built-in moisture to work with. That said, it is cold enough to produce some showers. Our forecast here is now down to .00-.25", with some missing out on the rain.

This outlook is backed by most models. Highs take a big step back with most seeing highs Saturday in the 50s and lower 60s.

Sunday and Monday's temperatures rebound a bit but by Tuesday and Wednesday temps again fall back into the 50s and lower 60s for highs. There is a large national cold air outbreak just after Valentine's Day. We are on the edge of that airmass. A series of low-pressure systems look to zip down The Sierra over the next few weeks to give us cold air, wind, and some scattered showers here and there.

No individual storm looks particularly strong but temps likely to stay under seasonal norms for a bit in the extended forecast. The "slider train" looks to run until the end of the month. I'll give you timing and intensity forecasts for those as they enter the 7 day. Currently, just this Saturday and something around the 20th-21st on deck in terms of reasonable rain chances.

Thursday is the day we update lakes and the U.S. Drought Monitor. The drought actually got marginally worse while some lakes peaked this week: