Good Tuesday evening, Central Coast!
Tonight through Friday Outlook
The upper low system southwest of the region will track well southeast of the Central Coast, passing south of San Diego on Thursday. This pattern will bring rising heights and weak offshore flow to the San Luis Obispo through Santa Barbara counties. Tonight looks mostly clear with lows mainly in the 40s. Closer to 50 at the coast with areas of lows clouds and fog possible but not widespread.
Despite the offshore component, low clouds will likely still develop along the Santa Barbara County western coast during the early morning hours. High temperatures will respond favorably with 1 to 3 degrees of warming across coastal areas and valleys, except for the Central Coast, where sea breeze influence will actually cool temperatures by 1 to 2 degrees. Interior sections, including portions of the Los Padres National Forest, will warm a few degrees.
Friday will bring additional warming of a few degrees into the 70s across most areas except at the coast.
Gusty winds will affect the western portion of the Santa Barbara County south coast each late afternoon and evening, with the strongest winds expected Thursday night.
The Weekend Through Tuesday
Saturday will feature weak ridging dominating the weather pattern. Moderate onshore flow will develop, potentially bringing night-through-morning low clouds and fog to coastal areas and lower valleys. This marine influence will limit the warming effects of the ridge, particularly along coastal sections.
Friday and Saturday, high temperatures will end up 2 to 4 degrees above normal in the 70s everywhere except beach communities.
Early Next Week Rain Potential
Model consensus has improved significantly for Sunday and early next week. A substantial upper low will track south approximately 100 miles west of the Bay Area on Sunday, establishing southwest flow over the Central Coast region.
Sunday will remain dry but feature abundant mid and high-level clouds, along with extensive morning low cloud coverage. Temperatures will cool 3 to 6 degrees from Saturday's readings closer to 70 inland.
The upper low-pressure system will begin moving eastward Sunday night, bringing rain chances to San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties Monday and Tuesday. Current projections suggest low rainfall amounts, though if the storm center tracks directly overhead (roughly 20 percent probability), pockets of heavier showers or isolated thunderstorms could develop.
Maximum temperatures will drop significantly during this period, falling into the 60s for highs.
Below is a snapshot of late Tuesday morning. We have a slim chance for showers on Monday and Tuesday around the Central Coast.
Have a great night, Central Coast!
-Jim
